The flash estimate for eurozone August HICP to decelerate to 1.3% yoy from 1.6%

The flash estimate for eurozone September HICP is due for publication next Monday. We see headline inflation decelerating to 1.2% yoy from 1.3%, with the core rate stable at 1.1% yoy. The slight downward move is expected to be mostly energy-driven. In Italy, we expect the preliminary CPI estimate for September to come in at -0.1% mom, 1.1% yoy (from 1.2% yoy in August). This outcome would be consistent with FOI ex-tobacco printing at 107.4 (+1.0% yoy). Important note: our inflation forecasts